Is Democracy in Peril?

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This article originally appeared in the fall 2024 issue of UC San Diego Magazine as “Democracy in Peril.”

The end of the Cold War in the early 1990s saw an unprecedented wave of democratization across the globe. The U.S. promoted a liberal international order and democracies that emphasized separation of powers, an independent judiciary and a system of checks and balances between branches of government.

Emilie Hafner-Burton and Christina Schneider, co-directors of the Future of Democracy Initiative at the University of California’s Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC), which focuses on worldwide threats to democratic forms of governance, believe that democracy as a system of government and social principle is experiencing its gravest threat globally since Adolf Hitler rose to power in the 1930s.

Hafner-Burton, a professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, and Schneider, a political science professor at the School of Social Sciences, discuss what they refer to as the alarming trend of “democratic backsliding” spreading around the world.

What is the current state of democracy?

Emilie Hafner-Burton: For democracy, the last decade in particular has seen a marked change in the nature of the world order. Two trends are particularly worrisome and have contributed to “democratic backsliding.” First, the actions of duly elected governments have led to the incremental deterioration of democratic institutions, rules and norms in many places. We saw this happen in the U.S. on Jan. 6, 2021, as well as in Hungary and Poland. Second, autocrats and illiberal regimes, or those that hide nondemocratic practices behind democratic institutions, are on the rise and are more active than ever.

How has “democratic backsliding” unfolded in different parts of the world?

Christina Schneider: After the end of the Cold War, countries such as the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and others that turned away from communism and transitioned to democracy experienced significant increases in foreign aid and other capital flows from U.S. and Western European donors, international development organizations and foreign investors. Foreign direct investment and trade brought significant benefits to many economies that integrated into the Western order.

But many newly democratic countries, such as Hungary, Poland and Venezuela, are increasingly governed by illiberal political parties who have come to power through legitimate democratic elections but then use that power to attack democratic norms and institutions from within, usually to increase executive autonomy. These leaders are aspiring autocrats and focus on undermining democracy using various strategies, such as buying votes and eliminating the political opposition. These strategies lead to an erosion of political accountability and make it more likely for aspiring autocrats to stay in power even as they pursue other democracy-eroding policies.

The world has seen autocrats come to power through legitimate democratic elections before, but what is different this time?

EHB: This time, both aspiring and established autocrats are using their deepening integration into the world order to undermine the democratic foundations of that order. Both long-standing and newly emerging authoritarian regimes are pursuing more assertive foreign policies than ever and challenging dominant international norms in the process. Additionally, autocrats actively cooperate with each other to undermine democracy. They pool resources, coordinate problem-solving and provide each other with support — all with the aim of advancing their nondemocratic, illiberal political objectives. These strategies help the modern autocrat maintain power within their home country through corruption and patronage rather than the outright use of violence and force.

What is the fate of democracy?

CS: The rise of democratically elected autocrats and their increasing involvement in the world is alarming and happening in every region of the globe. It won’t be easy to roll back, as many of these governments’ tactics include putting laws, judges and other political rules and actors into place that give an advantage to those already in power. The fate of democracy is by no means determined, but its resilience will depend on the strength of institutions to create and maintain accountability.

EHB: Resilience for democracy will require a commitment to accountability where possible. We need to see that commitment upheld in upcoming U.S. elections no matter which party wins. The new autocratic world order is almost certainly here to stay, which is all the more reason why it’s important that leading democracies like the U.S. and many of its allies need to stay the course and put the rule of law and appropriate public discourse first.

Education is important, too. Many of our students end up in the field working with the World Bank, in government or with nongovernmental organizations. And they inform those discussions. Training people to care about these issues and seeing them secure positions of power and authority to shape what’s actually happening on the ground — that’s critical.